Baseball Analytics
XP Model · 5‑Metric Overall Score
Welcome to timbaseball.com — a data‑driven baseball analytics hub built around two complementary scoring systems that reveal how hitters and pitchers truly perform. Explore the analyzers below and dive into the numbers.
Scoring Philosophy
XP Score — Raw Impact Index
The XP Score is a high‑resolution performance metric that captures a player’s impact on the field. It’s intentionally unfiltered — built from core stats like BA, OBP, SLG, BB%, and K% — and scaled so explosive players stand out.
XP rewards:
- High batting average
- Strong on‑base skill
- Slugging power
- Walk discipline
- Low strikeout rates
XP is designed to pop. When a hitter has an Overall Score of 6.5 and an XP of 1100, it tells you he’s doing something special — even if his traditional stats don’t immediately show it. XP reveals outliers, breakout candidates, and fantasy sleepers.
Overall Score — 5‑Metric Skill Model (0–10)
The Overall Score is a balanced, normalized rating built from five core skill components:
- BA — Pure Contact
- OBP — Plate Discipline
- SLG — Impact
- K% — Decision Making
- BB% — Patience
Each metric is scaled from 0–10 and weighted to produce a final Overall Score. This model reflects true skill and consistency — the kind of rating scouts and analysts rely on.
Why Both Scores Matter
XP shows impact.
Overall Score shows skill.
Together, they tell the full story of a player’s performance.
Current Research
XP Divergence and Fantasy Identity Stability
The ongoing research examines the relationship between a player's XP score and the XP expected from his Overall Score. Players are grouped by standard deviation bands based on their XP divergence, and subsequent Fantasy Identity changes are measured across those groups.
The current results suggest that players farther from their expected XP relationship may experience Fantasy Identity changes more frequently. This analysis is preliminary, and additional data will be used to determine whether the observed relationship persists over time.
Overall Divergence and Fantasy Value
The ongoing research also examines how a player's Overall Score compares with the Overall Scores of statistically similar players. Expected Overall is calculated using the 10 nearest player profiles based on the five component scores used by the Overall model.
Players are grouped by standard deviation bands based on their Overall divergence. Early results suggest that larger deviations from Expected Overall may reveal more structured patterns in subsequent player movement, while players closer to expectation exhibit less distinct behavior. This analysis remains preliminary and will continue to be evaluated across additional observations.